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Market leaps after Rudd's bank pledge

13/10/2008 5:03:00 PM
Australian shares soared after renewed efforts by governments at home and abroad to bolster banks sparked renewed confidence in financial stocks and big miners.

Bank stocks were among the biggest gainers today after $190 billion was erased from the Australian stock market last week.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index ended the day up 220 points, or 5.6%, to 4,180.7 points, recovering most of Friday's 8.2% rout.

The Australian dollar, meanwhile, pared gains, to trade recently at 66.06 US cents, after earlier hitting 68 US cents. Against Japan's currency, it advanced 66.06 yen, also off its morning highs of 68.80 yen.

Movements on overseas markets provide some cause for optimism that today's share market gains will be sustained. Most Asian markets were trading higher and the Dow futures were pointing to a gain of 290 points, or about 3%, for Wall Street when it opens later tonight.

Confidence in Australian banks was buoyed by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's announcement yesterday that all deposits in Australian financial institutions would be guaranteed for three years.

Mr Rudd said the guarantee is aimed in part at ensuring Australian banks would not be at a disadvantage if overseas rivals got government backing and capital injections, as is planned in Europe and elsewhere. European leaders overnight unveiled a combined effort to restore market confidence.

Financials higher

Almost all sectors of the market were trading higher, with the financials leading the way, gaining about 7.7% overall. The materials sub-index jumped 6%.

''The banks are definitely leading this market higher and it's all in reaction to the guarantee plans that have been announced by the federal government,'' EL&C Baillieu director Richard Morrow said.

Banking stocks were favourites, with ANZ Bank ended the day at its highs, adding 13%, or $2, to $17.30.

The Commonwealth Bank advanced 6.7%, or $2.65, to $42.20, NAB was up 7.7%, or $1.60, to $22.40 and Westpac surged 9%, or $1.81, to $22..

Among the smaller banks, St George also jumped 9.8%, or $2.47, to $27.66.

Suncorp-Metway fell 2.4%, or 22 cents, to $9.05 after announcing that it was reconsidering the sale of assets, reversing early gains.

Bank of Queensland was up 13%, or $1.40, to $12.40.

Macquarie Group jumped 11%, or $3.23, to $31.75 and Babcock & Brown was up 27%, or 27.5 cents, to $1.285.

Economic signals

Economic figures out today, though, underscore the fragility of domestic demand.

Jobs advertised online and in newspapers fell 1.4% in September, for the fifth consecutive month, according to the ANZ Bank.

"Heightened financial market volatility, falls in global equity and commodity prices, and uncertainty over the global economic outlook have intensified over the past month," ANZ economist Warren Hogan said in a release.

"ANZ has revised forecasts for unemployment in Australia and now expects the unemployment rate to rise to around 5.75% over the second half of 2009."

Official unemployment figures out last week showed the largest number of full-time job losses in more than two years, with the jobless rate rising to 4.3%.

Finance data, also out today, showed an across-the-board drop in August.

Total personal finance commitments fell 5.2%, seasonally adjusted, from July, while total commercial finance slumped 7.9% to $29.57 billion, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.

Housing finance for owner occupation also dropped 2.1% to $12.123 billion from July.

Fickle investors

With such economic gloom spreading, analysts cautioned that the morning's strong rallies may fizzle.

"There's a good chance it will head down again," said James Drohan, private client adviser, at Ord Minnett. "I don't think there has been enough definitive action by global leaders to give investors the confidence that they are looking for."

Mr Drohan pointed to falling commodities prices as evidence of the negative view that has pervaded markets.

So far today, however, relief that economies may be perked up by the European and other coordinated effort is bolstering stocks of the biggest miners.

BHP Billiton gained 8.2%, or $2.26, to $30 and its takeover target Rio Tinto gained 8.7%, or $6,36, to $79.36, its high for the day.

Woodside Petroleum was down 1%, or 39 cents, at $36.81. Rival energy company Santos was also lower, falling 1%, or 13 cents, to $12.21.

Gold miner Lihir lost 2.8%, or 7 cents, to $2.42 but Newcrest gained 7.2%, or $1.85 cents, to $27.49.

The retailers were mixed, with Wesfarmers losing 2.5%, or 53 cents, to $21.22 after earlier trading 5% higher, Woolworths was up 5.4%, or $1.36 cents, to $26.36, its high for the day. Harvey Norman lost 0.8%, or 2 cents, to $2.58.

One of the biggest swings in the market was Valad Property Group, which ended the day up 15%, 1.2 cents, at 9.5 cents.

Global recession ahead

As investors look beyond the flurry of rescue packages and deposit guarantees, they will have to take into account the impact of much slower growth on companies' profits, analysts said.

"The current debacle is going to drive the global economy into recession," said TD Securities global strategist Stephen Koukoulas in a note to clients over the weekend.

The pace of banking activity is set to slow as the rescues devised hashed out by governments start to take financial institutions under their control.

The International Monetary Fund already cut its 2009 global growth forecast to 3%, the lowest in seven years, down from a 3.9% expectation in July.

Weaker lending will take the edge off economic expansion by making financing for businesses harder to attain. With companies unable to take out the loans needed to fund their plans, investors will begin to see smaller returns.

"The newly nationalised banks are likely to err on the side of tight credit facilities, a conservative approach to lending and there are likely to be some sort of limits of the quantity of credit to even those judged to be the very safest counterparties," said Mr Koukoulas.

"To be sure, there will be some lending, borrowing, saving and investing, but the scope of all of these is much narrower, the consequence of which is a weak economic performance."

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Comments


Date: Newest first | Oldest first
Rudd is but one short step from declaring 'a Republic'. His decision to bring investors into the banks and out of the 'stock market' will cause huge cash shortages for businesses who rely on private funding from the market. Good businesses will now crumble as a second wave of exits leave, believing that a 3 year guarantee is better. And your Wayne said "we won't need to draw on the guarantee anyway". Well done, Rudd, you have just hastened a small business collapse here in Australia, again the consequences of fear driven to banks being the security. Can anyone else see what I am saying? Chris Zappone - Your last paragraph, in your conclusion, should have been your first. I know what you know. Maybe re-write it again as a "Second Wave Collapse" Sincerely Stephen Johnson
Posted by adaptapensioner on 13/10/2008 3:22:35 PM
I'm sure that many people will be more confident in their savings held in banks now and irrespective of the criticisms, people need that security and react to insecurity in a way that could have had disastrous effects on the economy. There is no 100% solution and nothing that can counter the global financial crisis to the point where the soothsayers won't find a bone to pick and opinion piece writers won't find an issue or forecast doom and gloom. It's not pretty which ever way you look at it but I think the majority of Australians are happy with the recent decision which BTW is fully supported by other parties.
Posted by Felix on 13/10/2008 6:04:07 PM
The honeymoon in marriage turns to reality by 4 years. This is but a 'sun-shower' for the birdbath. Go to NYSE.COM and find the so called "lack of U.S regulation" and you come away with "Where do we begin the audit". Simpletons like Mr Rudd create misconceptions, the blame game "It's them, not us" and has chosen Barabbas the Banker. One said "The recession we ..." Here our PM says "The banks we had to protect". I'm just sorry for all businesses who relied on private funding based on performance of private shares as you can wave your investors "Bye, Bye- Gone to the Banks!" Three years of secure (?) stagnation while banks compete between each other for Your Money. They will all raise interest rate returns to attract Your Money and the magnetic borrowing rate will follow 2-3% lower, as they rise. A very bad and knee-jerk reaction from a 'ex-foreign minister'. Someone please post this to Steve Fielding and M. Turnbull to contest the foolishness, block in the senate
Posted by adaptapensioner on 13/10/2008 11:44:58 PM

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The All Ordinaries Index is at the Australian Stock Exchange.
The All Ordinaries Index is at the Australian Stock Exchange.
'NATIONAL SECURITY CRISIS': Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.
'NATIONAL SECURITY CRISIS': Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.
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